Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.449363 1.642399 1.847299 2.080537 2.338205 2.613689 2.930023
2025-01-05 1.142271 1.397499 1.685688 2.033530 2.440226 2.898870 3.453319
2025-01-12 0.932075 1.226965 1.579942 2.029700 2.583276 3.237871 4.065553
2025-01-19 0.755449 1.070347 1.469736 2.006171 2.699609 3.556864 4.686673
2025-01-26 0.645706 0.981893 1.432385 2.067923 2.927182 4.032825 5.544614
2025-02-02 0.548919 0.896130 1.387474 2.114619 3.140907 4.512299 6.452807
2025-02-09 0.460367 0.807816 1.327173 2.132916 3.318559 4.961143 7.361811
2025-02-16 0.388726 0.732960 1.275996 2.157791 3.507849 5.442667 8.356569
2025-02-23 0.315138 0.641379 1.185935 2.112737 3.589940 5.779962 9.177575
2025-03-02 0.248118 0.547527 1.077659 2.024438 3.595981 6.005821 9.855321
2025-03-09 0.207250 0.493114 1.027414 2.023994 3.738900 6.447537 10.885462
2025-03-16 0.169950 0.437363 0.965747 1.995478 3.832144 6.818763 11.834556
2025-03-23 0.148023 0.410473 0.956823 2.065565 4.108818 7.519598 13.375464
2025-03-30 0.117349 0.355999 0.884471 2.008709 4.159678 7.858676 14.368896
2025-04-06 0.096082 0.317895 0.838775 1.996681 4.289762 8.341206 15.632837
2025-04-13 0.077467 0.280750 0.787931 1.966830 4.383395 8.768758 16.836280
2025-04-20 0.067139 0.263291 0.778592 2.022000 4.644555 9.509154 18.619186
2025-04-27 0.057584 0.244967 0.763721 2.063198 4.882469 10.225532 20.406759
2025-05-04 0.048318 0.224152 0.738406 2.077321 5.066964 10.857288 22.084676
2025-05-11 0.040815 0.206411 0.717463 2.098517 5.268016 11.533948 23.883887
2025-05-18 0.032444 0.181596 0.671345 2.052004 5.319658 11.928765 25.192623
2025-05-25 0.024652 0.154795 0.612552 1.963887 5.269790 12.120772 26.135277
2025-06-01 0.020308 0.140599 0.588584 1.961840 5.412356 12.703420 27.846334